Flu season predictions 2023-2024

Every year, we monitor the Australian winter flu season (January to August) and use this information to predict how we will fare in the UK. With this knowledge, our clients can begin to plan for the likely impact on their workforce, and help further support the wellbeing of their people.

It’s important to note that this is not an exact science, but it does give us some key findings on which to base our prognosis.

The following findings, conclusions and recommendations have been gathered by Adam Hadfield, Clinical Governance Manager at GoodShape. All data has been derived from the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care website.

Findings

The 2023/2024 UK flu season is likely to be severe, with a high number of cases and hospitalisations. This is based on evidence from the 2023 Australian flu season, which is the worst it's been in five years.

The flu season in Australia is currently considered severe. The number of cases of influenza reported in Australia has increased significantly in recent weeks, and the number of people hospitalised with influenza has also increased.

As such, the Australian government has declared a national public health emergency in response to the severity of the flu season.

Here is an attribution breakdown of all the influenza-associated deaths reported in Australia so far this season:

• 76% to influenza A (unsubtyped)
• 12% to influenza B
• 9% to influenza A(H1N1)
• 1% to influenza A(H3N2)
• 1% to influenza untype

In the year-to-date, of the 194,790 notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza in Australia, there have been 194 influenza-associated deaths notified to the NNDSS. Most cases are in children under the age of five and the elderly. Since seasonal surveillance commenced in April 2023, there have been 2,554 sentinel hospital admissions, of which 173 (7%) were admitted directly to ICU.

Conclusion

The UK is likely to experience a similar flu season, as the same strains of flu are circulating in both countries. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has warned that the flu season could be particularly severe this year, as many people have not been exposed to the flu virus for several years due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recommendations

For individuals:

• Washing your hands frequently with soap and water
• Covering your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze
• Staying home from work or school if you are sick
• Avoiding close contact with people who are sick

For employers:

• Encourage employees to get a seasonal flu vaccine, or consider offering subsidised vaccine vouchers (available through your healthcare provider or FluVouchers.co.uk).
• Develop and review sick leave policies, where possible allowing employees to work from home to minimise spread.
• In the past few years living with COVID, we've all become accustomed to ensuring our work environments are clean and safe. Providing tissues, no-touch bins, hand sanitiser stations, as well as clear information on hygiene, are all great ways of minimising risk.