Flu season predictions 2023-2024

Every year, we monitor the Australian winter flu season (January to August) and use this information to predict how we will fare in the UK. With this knowledge, our clients can begin to plan for the likely impact on their workforce, and help further support the wellbeing of their people.

It’s important to note that this is not an exact science, but it does give us some key findings on which to base our prognosis.

The following findings, conclusions and recommendations have been gathered by Adam Hadfield, Clinical Governance Manager at GoodShape. All data has been derived from the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care website.


The 2023/2024 UK flu season is likely to be severe, with a high number of cases and hospitalisations. This is based on evidence from the 2023 Australian flu season, which is the worst it's been in five years.

The flu season in Australia is currently considered severe. The number of cases of influenza reported in Australia has increased significantly in recent weeks, and the number of people hospitalised with influenza has also increased.

As such, the Australian government has declared a national public health emergency in response to the severity of the flu season.

Here is an attribution breakdown of all the influenza-associated deaths reported in Australia so far this season:

  • 76% to influenza A (unsubtyped)
  • 12% to influenza B
  • 9% to influenza A(H1N1)
  • 1% to influenza A(H3N2)
  • 1% to influenza untype


In the year-to-date, of the 194,790 notifications of laboratory-confirmed influenza in Australia, there have been 194 influenza-associated deaths notified to the NNDSS. Most cases are in children under the age of five and the elderly. Since seasonal surveillance commenced in April 2023, there have been 2,554 sentinel hospital admissions, of which 173 (7%) were admitted directly to ICU.


The UK is likely to experience a similar flu season, as the same strains of flu are circulating in both countries. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has warned that the flu season could be particularly severe this year, as many people have not been exposed to the flu virus for several years due to the COVID-19 pandemic.


For individuals:

The best way to protect yourself from the flu is to get vaccinated. The flu vaccine is free for those who are most at risk, including the elderly, children under the age of five, and those with underlying health conditions. The flu vaccine is safe and effective, and it can help to prevent serious illness and death. If you are eligible for the flu vaccine, please get it as soon as possible.

In addition to getting vaccinated, there are other things you can do to help prevent the spread of flu, including:

  • Washing your hands frequently with soap and water
  • Covering your mouth and nose when you cough or sneeze
  • Staying home from work or school if you are sick
  • Avoiding close contact with people who are sick

By following these simple steps, you can help to protect yourself and others from the flu.

For employers:

  • Encourage employees to get a seasonal flu vaccine, or consider offering subsidised vaccine vouchers (available through your healthcare provider or FluVouchers.co.uk).
  • Develop and review sick leave policies, where possible allowing employees to work from home to minimise spread.
  • In the past few years living with COVID, we've all become accustomed to ensuring our work environments are clean and safe. Providing tissues, no-touch bins, hand sanitiser stations, as well as clear information on hygiene, are all great ways of minimising risk.
We must prepare for the unpredictability of flu and put plans into place in 2023/2024 to ensure the impact on the vulnerable and health and social care is as minimalised as it can be.


Find out how we can help.

Fill out the form below and one of our team will be in touch to arrange a meeting.

Find out more

Customisable promo module headline.

Supporting info lorem ipsum dolor sitam amet sed do eiusmod tempor.

Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet. Duis aute irure dolor.