Every year, the Australian flu season (January–August) provides an important indicator of what the United Kingdom (UK) may face in the following winter. While predictions are not exact, trends in strain behaviour, severity, and population impact in Australia have historically mirrored those in the Northern Hemisphere. This report reviews the Australian 2025 flu season to date, identifies likely implications for the UK 2025/26 flu season, and sets out recommendations for employers to mitigate the impact on their workforce.
This article was written by Adam Hadfield, Head of Clinical Governance at GoodShape.
Overview of the 2025 Australian flu season:
The 2025 flu season in Australia has been one of the most challenging in recent years. Key findings include:
- Early onset and high case volume: Cases rose sharply from March, with over 70,000 confirmed by April—a 58% increase year-on-year. By mid-winter, states such as Queensland reported more cases in the first half of 2025 than during the entirety of 2024.
- Increased hospitalisations: Hospital admissions for influenza were more than 55% above the five-year average, placing sustained pressure on bed capacity.
- Children disproportionately affected: Under-fives and primary school children have been most impacted, accounting for nearly a third of respiratory admissions in some regions.
- Low vaccination uptake: Less than 50% of adults aged 65+ and under 12% of children under five received a flu vaccination, with the majority of severe cases occurring among the unvaccinated.
- Tripledemic impact: Concurrent circulation of influenza, RSV, and COVID-19 has created a “tripledemic” burden on healthcare and community services.
Implications for the UK:
Based on the Australian experience, the UK is expected to face:
Timing and severity
- An earlier onset than usual, with cases potentially rising from October, peaking in December–January.
- A moderate-to-severe season, with high transmissibility and significant absenteeism across sectors.
Workforce impact
- Elevated absenteeism: Illness-related absences are likely to rise sharply, particularly in education, healthcare, retail, and transport.
- Child-related absences: With children disproportionately affected, there may be increased parental leave requirements for dependent care.
- Pressure on NHS services: Healthcare staff shortages, alongside patient surges, may result in indirect disruption to other sectors reliant on NHS support.
Risk factors
- Vaccination uptake will be critical. Should uptake lag, the UK may experience severe healthcare and workforce strain similar to Australia.
- The potential for a “tripledemic” (influenza, RSV, COVID-19) could exacerbate demand on health and social care.
Winter planning recommendations for employers
To reduce workforce disruption, employers should implement a structured winter preparedness plan:
Vaccination initiatives
- Offer or subsidise on-site flu vaccinations from late September to anticipate early onset.
- Actively promote vaccination uptake among staff, with targeted messaging for vulnerable groups.
Workplace flexibility
- Review and reinforce sick leave policies to ensure staff can stay home when unwell.
- Enable remote working arrangements where feasible to reduce presenteeism and transmission.
Infection control
- Provide accessible hand sanitiser, tissues, and cleaning materials in shared spaces.
- Ensure ventilation and air quality measures are in place, especially in high-density areas.
Communication & awareness
- Run educational campaigns reminding employees of flu symptoms, hygiene practices, and return-to-work guidance.
- Equip managers with toolkits for supporting employees with illness-related absences.
Operational continuity
- Develop contingency staffing plans, particularly for business-critical roles.
- Use absence trend data to anticipate surges and adapt resourcing accordingly.
Advice for employees
To protect yourself during the flu season:
- Get vaccinated: Ensure you get the annual flu vaccine, which is your best defence.
- Practice good hygiene: Regularly wash your hands with soap, use hand sanitisers, and avoid touching your face.
- Stay informed: Keep up to date with public health advice and flu activity in your area.
- Boost immunity: Maintain a healthy diet, exercise regularly, and get enough sleep.
- Avoid crowded places: If flu is widespread, limit your exposure to crowded areas.
These measures can significantly reduce your risk of catching the flu.
Conclusion:
The 2025 Australian flu season has been marked by early onset, high case numbers, low vaccination uptake, and pressure on healthcare services. If patterns hold true, the UK is likely to face an early and severe flu season in 2025/26, with the potential for significant impact on workforce productivity.
Employers who act now by strengthening vaccination access, workplace flexibility, infection control, and communication will be best placed to mitigate disruption and protect both employee wellbeing and organisational resilience this winter.
References:
Australian Government Department of Health. (2025). National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) – Influenza data. Retrieved August 2025, from https://www.health.gov.au
RACGP. (2025, June). Worrying signs as peak flu season draws near. Royal Australian College of General Practitioners. Retrieved from https://www1.racgp.org.au
The Guardian. (2025, May 23). Record flu cases as vaccination uptake lags in Australia. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com
Courier Mail. (2025, June 29). Flu cases in Queensland surpass 2024 totals in first half of 2025. Retrieved from https://www.couriermail.com.au
Daily Telegraph. (2025, May). Australian GPs warn of early flu season with children hardest hit. Retrieved from https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au
CoScience Hub. (2025, July). Australia’s 2025 flu season peaks: widespread and severe – what this means for Europe’s next winter. Copan Group. Retrieved from https://cosciencehub.copangroup.com
AusVaxSafety. (2025, April). Australian flu season 2025: who should get the flu shot and what to expect. Retrieved from https://ausvaxsafety.org.au
