Australia’s flu season can provide useful early clues about what may reach the UK, but it is an early warning system, not a crystal ball.
This article was written by Adam Hadfield, Head of Clinical Governance at GoodShape.
Each year, health experts look to countries in the Southern Hemisphere for an early indication of how the UK’s flu season might develop. Because Australia experiences winter several months before us, its experience can highlight which types of flu are circulating and which parts of the population may be most affected.
The latest evidence from Australia deserves attention. However, it does not justify predicting a severe UK winter at this stage.
Australia experienced a relatively quiet start to its 2026 flu season. More recently, that picture has changed.
The Australian Centre for Disease Control reported 13,685 confirmed flu cases during the fortnight ending 9th August – an increase of 58% compared with the previous fortnight. Cases increased across every Australian state and territory, with the sharpest rise among children and young people aged 5 to 19.
More recent information from New South Wales Health shows that flu activity continued to increase during the week ending 1th5 August and was considered to be at a high level.
This suggests that Australia’s national flu peak may still be ahead. The current pattern resembles a more traditional flu season, building through winter and potentially reaching its highest point in late August or early September.
There is, however, important context. Australia’s total number of confirmed cases in 2026 remains considerably lower than at the same point in 2025. The recent acceleration should therefore be taken seriously, but it does not automatically mean that Australia (or the UK) is heading for an exceptionally severe season.
Most cases and hospital admissions in Australia have involved influenza A. Among samples studied in more detail, a strain known as H3N2 has been the most common.
The name may be unfamiliar, but the practical message is straightforward. H3N2 can affect people of all ages and has historically been associated with greater pressure on older people and those with underlying health conditions. Australia has also seen increasing H3N2-related hospital admissions among children.
This does not yet tell us how severe the season will become. Hospital information takes longer to emerge than community case numbers, so the available severity data largely predates Australia’s most recent rise in infections.
It is also too early to know exactly how effective Australia’s 2026 flu vaccine has been. Initial testing suggests that the vaccine recognises most of the flu samples examined, although the match has been less consistent for H3N2 than for some other strains.
The UK’s 2026/27 vaccine is not identical to the Australian vaccine. It has been updated for the Northern Hemisphere, so Australia’s early findings cannot be used to estimate how well the UK vaccine will perform.
Our current view is that a moderate UK flu season is the most plausible outcome, with H3N2 likely to be an important and potentially dominant part of the season.
There is a credible possibility that transmission will initially be particularly visible among school-aged children before spreading more widely through households and workplaces. That could affect employers not only through illness among employees, but also through caring responsibilities and disruption at home.
A higher-impact season remains possible, especially if flu begins circulating early or vaccine uptake is low. Equally, the Australian experience does not provide evidence that a severe UK season is inevitable.
The timing is also uncertain. A reasonable planning assumption is that UK flu activity could begin to rise during October or November, with the greatest impact between late November and January. This is a planning range rather than a firm prediction.
For now, UK Health Security Agency surveillance shows that flu remains at baseline levels in England. That gives employers an opportunity to prepare before winter pressures begin.
Preparation does not need to be complicated. A small number of practical measures can reduce avoidable transmission and make organisations more resilient.
Employers should decide how they will promote or provide flu vaccination and make it easy for people to attend appointments.
Under the 2026/27 national flu programme, vaccination for eligible children and pregnant women begins in September, while most eligible adults will be offered vaccination from October.
Workplace vaccination programmes can also extend access to employees who are not eligible through the NHS. Clear communication, convenient appointments and visible support from managers can all improve participation.
People attending work while unwell can spread infection and may take longer to recover. Employers should review sickness policies, manager guidance and attendance incentives to ensure they do not unintentionally encourage people to work on-site when they are clearly unwell.
Where roles allow, temporary home working or flexible arrangements may help an employee recover while reducing the risk to colleagues.
Flu spreads more easily in crowded, poorly ventilated environments. Meeting rooms, break areas, vehicles and other busy shared spaces should be included in winter planning.
Bringing fresh air into occupied spaces, maintaining ventilation systems and avoiding unnecessary overcrowding can help reduce transmission. These measures are supported by UKHSA workplace guidance.
Provide soap, hand sanitiser and suitable cleaning products, with particular attention to frequently touched surfaces and shared equipment.
Communications should be short and practical: wash hands regularly, cover coughs and sneezes, and avoid close contact with others when unwell.
Some employees may be more vulnerable to complications from flu because of age, pregnancy, an underlying health condition or treatment that affects their immune system.
Managers should know how employees can request support or workplace adjustments without being expected to share unnecessary medical details.
Employers should prepare for the possibility of a short, sharp increase in absence. That means identifying essential roles, cross-training where possible, and considering how teams would respond if several employees, or employees and their dependants, became unwell at the same time.
Organisations should also monitor absence patterns so emerging pressure can be identified before it becomes a wider operational problem.
Australia is providing a useful early warning: a quiet start to a flu season can still be followed by a rapid rise. The evidence supports sensible preparation, but not alarmist predictions.
For UK employers, the right approach is to prepare for a potentially meaningful winter flu season while continuing to monitor the evidence. Vaccination, supportive sickness policies, good ventilation and robust business-continuity planning remain the most practical protections.
GoodShape will release a full UK Influenza Season Outlook in early September, once further data from Australia is available and the timing, severity and dominant flu strains can be assessed with greater confidence.